Mark Kolier’s Blog

Archive for September, 2010

Note: Since I am in no way any kind of economist my perspective is that of a layman.

It seems to me that economists and some people are almost resigned to accepting that a double dip recession is likely if not already on the way. I liked it much better when a ‘double dip’ conjured up images of gooey chocolate covering on vanilla ice cream cones at Dairy Queen. The question I have is, are people wishing this to happen?

The thing about negative news and information is that people seem to pile on and at times almost revel in what I call the ‘Eeyore’ syndrome (my apologies to A.A. Milne and the aforementioned character who could find that black cloud on even the sunniest of days). To me it’s possible this might become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Economists try to predict trends all the time in some sort of bizarre contest of ‘I was right – first’. There is no real penalty for being wrong. The more outlandish the prediction the more attention it gets. If that outlandish prediction actually turns out to be correct then years from when it was made the predictor can smugly say ‘I got it right – and I was first’. Oh boy. What a big help, thanks.

I don’t pretend to be that naïve, nor am I attempting to whistle through the graveyard (although the current economic climate has that appearance at times). Things remain tough for many Americans, and for so many people in the world economy. The economic fixes proposed by the current administration while well-intentioned, seem indecisive and they appear to be uncertain on what to do next. Nobody said fixing a broken American economy was going to be easy.

And that’s the point isn’t it? When the ‘Great Recession’ began sometime in 2008 (or 2007 depending on who is talking), the economic experts did not see it right away (they actually called the time of the beginning recession in late 2009 – isn’t hindsight great?), and when they did see it we were told it was going to be a long, hard, road to recovery.

We’ve been on that road for quite some time. Yet people act surprised that it is taking so long. Workers need to be retrained in the new economy and associated technologies. People over 55 are more than a little aggravated (o.k. pissed off) hat thoughts of retirement at 65 – something they have been thinking about for more than 30 years, is out the window.

This retraining takes time and it is happening right now. But is it possible that maintaining a positive attitude is such a bad thing? One of my favorite days of the year is the winter solstice which in the northern hemisphere is the shortest day of the year. Why? Every day after that the sun stays up just a bit longer – all the way until June and our reward is summer.

The American and world economy will eventually improve – hopefully sooner than later. But if you want to wish for a double dip I suggest heading to your favorite ice cream store.

Am I crazy to think that people’s attitude can shape an economic climate?

The United States Postal Service (USPS) actually has a magazine it puts out somewhat regularly called Deliver. I don’t know if they give themselves a discount on their periodical rate. Quite often there are articles regarding the viability of mail; adjectives like enduring are used in conjunction with the description of the tangible advantages of the touch and feel of a mail piece.

Recently, advertising mail supplanted first class mail in total pieces delivered. Yet the USPS lost money last quarter – in fact the USPS has lost money in 12 out of the last 14 quarters. This year the USPS recommended cutting Saturday service as well as eliminating prepaid retiree health benefits.

We all know the reasons why – online bill paying being one of the big reasons first class mail volume has dropped so dramatically. To counter the ongoing trend downward the USPS has filed for a rate increase which will impact both first class and standard A (or advertising mail). Standard A or direct mail advertising continues to grow in revenue but some interesting changes are taking place as prices go up and mail volume overall declines. I can’t understand why squeezing the only area of the USPS that is growing seems like a good idea to the USPS.

Mail is becoming the channel for luxury and expensive brands. It’s nearly impossible to prospect through the mail for products and services that are inexpensive. The metrics simply do not work anymore. Magazine subscription offers used to flood the mail box but no more. The decline in magazine subscription mailings has a great deal to do with the decline of magazine circulation in general, but it has more to do with the fact that prospecting for new readers or renewals for existing readers is too expensive to be done through the mail.

It seems to me that less expensive products also have given up on mail as an acquisition channel. However the luxury marketers are using mail effectively as a channel to an increasing degree. Particularly once a prospect inquiry has been made for a luxury product, (whether it comes from a television, radio or magazine ad), that prospect is nurtured and analyzed, and then the prospect will be mailed to on a regular basis.

This tactic is very effective and works for several reasons.

1) Mailing to a self-selected lead/name is highly effective and very profitable for luxury or expensive products.

2) Consumer mailboxes have become more and more empty. Mail messages can penetrate the clutter much more so than in recent years.

3) People under thirty actually are not as tired of direct mail and the message penetrates much more than email which is fast becoming irrelevant to them – especially advertising email.

The tide has turned and direct mail is now on its way to being the bastion of luxury and expensive products and services. Maybe it’s there already.

What do you think?

I was having lunch with a business friend yesterday and we were talking about people who lack the ability to focus on the task at hand. These days it seems more difficult than ever given the unending flow of information and distractions. I noted that what people really need to do is narrow the scope down – no unlike the red dot laser targeting we see on television and movies when someone points a weapon at something or someone.

In fact when a television or movie notices the red dot laser is focused on them, they often raise their hands and simply give up. The jig is up and they are beaten.

How can people use this red dot laser metaphor in their professional lives? First and foremost, use it to help drown out all the white noise that gets in the way of focusing on THE most important thing that is at hand. Identify what that most important thing is and narrow the target by aiming that red dot laser right into the heart of the matter.

Close your email inbox, close your internet browser, put your phone on do not disturb, turn your mobile to silent. Take time every day to shut out the distractions and use your red dot laser focus to move on the most critical thing facing you and your business. Try it for fifteen minutes or longer. If you can do this regularly you will be that much closer to accomplishing that critical mission.

So are you using your red dot laser like focus already? If not will you give it a try?

I carry an Amex Platinum card for several reasons not the least of which is free access to several airline clubs (I wish there were more included but as you will read below the Delta Sky Lounge access is was a great thing for me this week). I also use the Platinum card for reservations in hard to get-in restaurants as they have a few tables every day and night in all the top places.

Amex Platinum also offers 2 for 1 business or first class tickets if purchased on the card – no other discount applies but still it can be a very good value. So it’s worth the high yearly fee since I get a lot of use out of it.

On Monday I was at LaGuardia and as I went through security the TSA agents asked to look through my bag. This was the second time in my last two flights. Last time they said it was random. This time they saw something which turned out to be a cigar lighter that I had forgotten was in the bag (and I have been looking all over my house for it – I just knew it would turn up). My Dad gave me that lighter and it has a lot of sentimental value to me as well as the fact that it works really well.

When something like this happens normally TSA takes it and it goes into the great abyss never to be seen again. This has happened with a cigar cutter I had (right after 9/11) in my luggage that was confiscated. (Apparently a then overzealous TSA agent felt I could pressure the pilot or flight attendant to put their finger through the cigar cutting hole and I would then threaten to cut it off – this policy has changed from what I am told).

So what to do? I remembered the Delta Sky Lounge was right next door so I asked the TSA agent to wait and quickly went into the Delta Sky Lounge to see if could get one of the attendants to come out to pick up the lighter and hold it for me until I returned. I walked in, explained my situation, the lovely attendant Marilyn was ready to help and walked right out, to pick up the lighter from the Agent Eric whom she said she knew. (We forget sometimes that the TSA agents are people with names, families and yes, personalities).

Marilyn came back in smiled and said she had it and would hold it for me and would be there when I returned since she was working that today. She was, I picked it up from her she escorted me out as per the TSA policy. This was a great example of a Delta Sky Club employee representing the brand as well as it can be done. I have had my issues with Delta Airlines http://wp.me/pJX7l-6a but they should be credited with having a class act like Marilyn as a part of their team.

Wish I had taken a photo of her – thanks Marilyn!